The pattern in the last few decades of this past century was control of the Middle East through oppressive regimes which were meant to keep stability and not necessarily enhance democratic institutions or republican ideals. The West propped up leaders who could do two things at once, keep their populations in order, and keep the oil flowing through the Middle East’s strategic waterways to the West. Saudi Arabia has been a linchpin for the West in this regard. But now, Saudi Arabia could be in danger of a revolution.
The Muslim Brotherhood is calling for a day of rage; the government is arresting Shiite leaders and sending tanks to next door Bahrain to quell their protests. The Saudis have dwelt long in a state that routinely beats and mistreats prisoners, and this may not be in concordance with Sharia law. It is this conflict that may lead to a loss of stability in Saudi Arabia. The strife could be focused on Shiite versus Sunni, but it could also be the people versus the state, or the common man’s interpretation of Sharia versus the court/state's interpretation.
Saudi Arabia the Key to Stability
For years now the Saudis have done what the West needed them to do most; keep the oil flowing one way, while the West sent their money the other way. The Arab leaders could also play their part by using some of their oil income to buy US treasuries. As long as the oil keeps flowing both sides are happy, at least that has been the theory.
What is happening now is that the oil is still flowing, but at a much higher price per barrel than before. US treasuries, once a hallmark of stable investing, are now worth a bit less than they used to be. Americans are unhappy about the price of oil, the Saudis are unhappy about their investment in treasuries. If the Saudis decide to stop buying treasuries it would be bad, if there is a general revolt in Saudi Arabia, it would be even worse. What are the chances of unrest in Saudi Arabia leading to greater troubles?
Sunni Versus Shiite
Saudi Arabia could be in danger of a revolution, or at least some serious internal conflict that could threaten to disrupt oil output depending on where it occurs. The sources of friction could be religious, as is already being witnessed in Bahrain, where Sunni and Shiite have already come to blows. If this religious strife is mixed with a popular anger over food and energy prices, the Saudis may be in for the same type of conflict being witnessed in other parts of the Middle East.
According to Wikipedia, The Shiites are the majority in Bahrain, but in Saudi Arabia they make up only 10-15% of the population. There may not be enough Shiites’ to lead a successful revolt if 90% of the country is against them. Saudi Arabia is smaller than Egypt but larger than Libya in terms of population. According to Reuters the Saudis have already begun to arrest Shiite leaders in anticipation of a crises. Obviously the Saudi leadership is concerned about the Shiite leaders being the focal point of any unrest.
The Sunni are the majority, but they too face the same problems the Shiite do. The US State Department reported back in 2005 that the Saudis routinely punish criminals with amputation, torture, beatings and other actions that may or may not be supported by Sharia law, it depends on the interpretation. Many Sharia judges for example say that it is against Sharia law to accept a confession made under duress or torture.
According to the US State department, Saudi Arabia punishes thieves with amputation, and also subjects suspected criminals with forms of torture including beatings, hanging suspended from handcuffs, and lashings. A teacher was banned from teaching and sentenced to 750 lashes for speaking positively about Christianity. The Saudi government does not hold the truths that Americans hold to be self-evident in their constitution, namely that all people deserve equal protection under the law.
A Day of Rage
The Muslim Brotherhood is now calling for a day of rage on Friday 3/11/2011. Saudi officials have detained several dozen Shiite leaders who have been protesting the regime. It is interesting that the Saudis should move so swiftly to arrest those who are merely protesting. Is it because they fear a larger uprising and want to nip it in the bud right away?
Investors are also very concerned about Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States. Disruption of oil in Libya is bad but the oil can be made up by other OPEC nations turning the valves a little more. But if those very nations the West is looking for to step up production also fall into chaos, what then? How high can the price of a barrel of oil go if the Persian Gulf is in turmoil from Yemen to Bahrain and From Saudi Arabia to Kuwait?
And It is not just about the countries themselves but the sea-lanes as well. If there is general conflict in the Middle East , one simply has to glance at a map to see the tricky problem the West will have to not only keep the nation-states of the Islamic world pumping oil, but getting that oil to market as well. I imagine that's why oil is so high in price already. It is not simply a fear of supply disruption, but a fear of distribution disruption also.
It is very likely that the world will witness some type of major unrest among the nations of the Persian Gulf, and Saudi Arabia may be the key or nexus point. There seems to be no question that the people of the Middle East are in the midst of a general revolt of lesser or greater degree and Saudi Arabia will be no exception. The question is how bad will it get? Will it be social unrest, or an outright civil war like the one in Libya?
Selected Sources:
And Weapons For All By William D. Hartung, Harper Collins, 1994
Robert Chapman, The International Forecaster Newsletter
