The situation on the Korean Peninsula is no less puzzling today than it was on November 23, 2010 when North Korea shelled a South Korean island, killing two ROK Marines and two civilians. North Korea’s foreign minister stated that the PDRK will defend itself with nuclear weapons against both the South and the United States, a statement that will do nothing to lessen the tension between the two sides. South Korea is talking about reunification, with President Lee stating that a united Korea is not very far away.
This statement on reunification follows on the heels of news that South Korea was looking to transform its islands on the sea border with North Korea into armed fortresses, with larger concentrations of troops and new rules of engagement that give commanders on the ground and on the oceans greater freedom to respond. This allows the South a more flexible defense, but may also heighten the tension between the two sides.
Reunification of Korea?
Reunification is the last thing on many minds in Korea. With the shelling of the Island of Yeonpyeong coming just months after the sinking of a South Korean patrol ship, there are few people thinking about reuniting with the North, except for perhaps President Lee. Lee has been under fire from his own people as much as from the North, with South Korean citizens angry that their government did not respond more strongly to the shelling, and the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan back in March of 2010. It is still unclear who sank the vessel, but most South Koreans blame the North.
The PDRK is using strong language, not only seemingly admitting that it has nuclear weapons, something that should surprise no one in the West, but also openly threatening the South and the USA with the use of said weapons, if the North feels threatened. The North's leaders have not specified what threats would cause them to respond with nuclear weapons.
A Nuclear Battlefield?
This lack of clarity will only make the tactical situation more difficult for South Korean and US commanders, who will need to think fast in the face of any further attacks from the North. The nuclear issue only complicates these decisions further. In the face of a nuclear battlefield, commanders will have to make split-second decisions that may affect the lives of not only tens of thousands of soldiers, but millions of civilians. Seoul is not a city that can be easily defended, even against a conventional attack. Nuclear weapons make the situation for the people of Seoul that much more serious.
On the diplomatic front, a senior Chinese official is meeting today with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. No one has officially released details about the meeting, but China has been under a great deal of pressure from other nations such as the USA to defuse the situation in Korea. This comes after recent Wikileaks disclosures that China may not have the close relationship with the North that many in the West had believed existed.
Russia has also spoken up, asking the parties involved, including North Korea, to refrain from doing anything that might escalate the situation further. While President Lee’s statement on reunification could be viewed as a peaceful overture, it could also be viewed as another statement meant to challenge the authority of the Northern regime.
North Korea Accuses the USA
On Thursday, North Korea also accused the United States of orchestrating the attack against Yeonpyeong Island, and reiterated its claim to the waters that surround it. While the PDRK cannot openly challenge the US and its allies on the surface, the North does operate submarines that could harm a US carrier group if the Captain is not only good enough, but brave enough to attempt a submerged attack.
The US Navy has no equal on deep water, but quiet diesel-electric boats would have an advantage over the larger US nuclear-powered Los Angeles class attack subs, designed to operate in deep waters, and not in the shallows off of Korea. The Northern commanders may be desperate to strike a blow against the West, and the threat of an attack by torpedo or missile on the US or its Allies should not be scoffed at. If the North is threatening nuclear attack, a nuclear-tipped torpedo could just as easily be part of the plan as a warhead on a ground-based missile.
The AFP is also reporting that Defense Secretary Robert Gates will be traveling to China in January to speak to Chinese officials about the Korean conflict, as well as other security matters. China is still smarting from recent US and Allied maneuvers in the Yellow Sea, which it views as its exclusive "economic zone". China and Russia also recently dropped the US dollar as their reserve currency, which will not win them many friends in the USA.
